How Will the Presidential Election Affect the Housing Market in Pismo Beach, Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, and Oceano?

As the 2024 Presidential Election approaches, questions arise about how it could impact our local housing market in areas like Pismo Beach, Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, and Oceano. Historically, election years create a mix of temporary slowdowns and rebounds in the housing market. Here’s a breakdown of what you might expect based on national trends:

1. Will Home Sales Slow Down?

• Typical Slowdown: Generally, home sales from October to November decrease by around 9.8% in a typical year.

• Election Year Dip: In an election year, that slowdown is even more pronounced, with a drop of around 15%.

• Current Trend: This year, about 23% of first-time buyers are waiting until after the election to make their move, which could lead to fewer home purchases through November.

For residents in our local communities, this means we may see fewer buyers during the election season, especially among first-time buyers. However, this is usually a temporary shift, and activity often picks back up once the election concludes.

2. Do More Homes Sell After the Election?

• Bounce-Back Potential: Historically, 82% of the time, home sales have rebounded the year after an election.

• 2025 Forecast: Experts predict a jump in national home sales from 4.6 million in 2024 to 5.2 million in 2025.

In the Five Cities area, this trend could translate into a busy 2025 as post-election certainty motivates more buyers. If you’re considering listing your property, there’s potential for increased demand next year.

3. What About Mortgage Rates?

• Election Year Trends: From July to November in election years, mortgage rates have decreased about 72% of the time.

• Current Market: This year has seen volatile mortgage rates, dropping as low as 6.08% in September, with an overall decrease from their peak by nearly 8%.

Lower mortgage rates in Pismo Beach and surrounding areas could help maintain buyer interest, even if sales activity dips slightly due to election uncertainty.

4. How Will Home Prices Be Affected?

• Post-Election Rise: Historically, home prices have risen 88% of the time in the year following an election.

• 2025 Price Prediction: Nationally, home prices are expected to rise by 2.5% in 2025.

For Pismo Beach, Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, and Oceano, this could mean property values will continue on an upward trajectory, providing potential gains for current homeowners and investors. For buyers, it may be wise to enter the market sooner to take advantage of the current prices before any increases next year.

Final Takeaway

While the election might create a short-term slowdown, the impact on the housing market is generally small and temporary. For those in our coastal communities, staying informed and watching for these shifts can help you time your real estate decisions—whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest.

Stay tuned for more updates as we track these trends into the new year.